Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 157.715806 190.360574 230.592017 284.717209 357.054946 4.525547e+02 5.920007e+02
2025-03-16 115.037990 150.617819 199.773958 275.361396 394.043027 5.838454e+02 9.363333e+02
2025-03-23 99.927865 139.378805 199.102105 301.964287 488.952326 8.505885e+02 1.728661e+03
2025-03-30 85.564827 124.658594 187.777788 305.968392 546.888447 1.094023e+03 2.808819e+03
2025-04-06 76.566360 115.806488 182.836921 318.256392 626.186568 1.450793e+03 4.927480e+03
2025-04-13 67.361510 104.644120 170.984977 312.831831 664.068853 1.743080e+03 7.770214e+03
2025-04-20 63.974857 102.693307 175.176995 341.833064 804.346656 2.535865e+03 1.815293e+04
2025-04-27 60.572020 100.023440 177.242456 366.852426 953.327320 3.649529e+03 4.949957e+04
2025-05-04 57.105182 96.608428 176.968956 386.197063 1102.232660 5.162728e+03 1.739077e+05
2025-05-11 53.536711 92.420455 174.139981 397.977786 1237.304108 7.095729e+03 9.851773e+05
2025-05-18 49.900036 87.570424 168.886931 401.304349 1345.000775 9.371225e+03 2.187667e+07
2025-05-25 46.118673 81.939948 160.846727 393.887705 1401.871495 1.156372e+04 NaN
2025-06-01 42.445842 76.290293 152.277349 383.828297 1449.499217 1.431157e+04 NaN
2025-06-08 38.919922 70.575288 142.700109 367.919249 1457.244956 1.680597e+04 NaN
2025-06-15 38.324883 71.084964 148.606117 406.722103 1836.851795 3.453052e+04 NaN
2025-06-22 36.335464 68.269065 145.499545 412.559131 2021.933244 5.459247e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 34.996420 66.755975 145.573529 430.845282 2341.544910 1.092202e+05 NaN
2025-07-06 32.873885 63.212110 139.545914 422.744812 2435.562045 1.641216e+05 NaN
2025-07-13 32.543534 63.807798 145.168459 466.240037 3131.555754 7.788344e+05 NaN
2025-07-20 31.965732 63.741260 148.909302 504.185494 3927.692778 1.045537e+07 NaN
2025-07-27 31.155631 63.012287 150.560943 533.783055 4771.542463 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 30.120129 61.609026 149.901973 551.915490 5559.512181 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 28.891564 59.595034 146.991782 557.050163 6173.560412 NaN NaN